China’s Military Ambitions Fuel Regional Arms Race

China’s move to sharply increase military spending and abandon its longstanding commitment to the “peaceful unification” of Taiwan has set off alarms across the Asia-Pacific, propelling neighboring countries to pour more money into defense budgets to counter Beijing’s growing assertiveness.

In a defiant signal at this month’s National People’s Congress, Premier Li Qiang omitted the customary reference to reunifying with the self-governing island “peacefully”  hardening China’s stance toward the territorially explosive issue. Simultaneously, the government unveiled a $231 billion defense budget for 2024, a 7.2 percent increase that continues almost a decade of steady rises.

The double-barreled developments seem calculated to enable President Xi Jinping’s goal of building a “world class” military capable of projecting power globally and willing to reclaim Taiwan by force if necessary. That trajectory, analysts say, is compelling China’s neighbors to fortify their militaries in a destabilizing arms race.

“China is showing that in the coming decade, it wants to grow its military to the point where it is prepared to win a war if it has no choice but to fight one,” said Li Mingjiang, a defense scholar at the Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

The budget figures likely understate actual military spending, which may be growing at “double-digit” annual rates when research, procurement and paramilitary forces are included, according to Tai Ming Cheung, who studies Chinese defense policy at the University of California, San Diego.

In Taipei, Taiwan’s foreign ministry warned that the island would “go all out to defend itself” against threats of Chinese invasion. Under constant threat, the democratic government has poured resources into defense, allocating over $19 billion this year, a 24 percent increase, on new weapons and military construction.

Other regional powers are following suit. Japan, which could be drawn into any Taiwan conflict, plans to double its military spending to 2 percent of GDP by 2027 amid deepening worries about Beijing’s maritime ambitions. The Philippines is seeking $35 billion for new fighter jets, missiles and other materiel to deter Chinese encroachments in the disputed South China Sea.

The intensifying arms race raises risks of unintended escalation, some experts warn. “Aggressive interactions between the Chinese military and others carry the potential to go awry and escalate into a full blown conflict,” said James Char of Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.

As regional tensions soar, the specter of an overheated Asia-Pacific arms race looms  with the Taiwan powder keg at its core. (From multiple sources.)