News Desk
A decade from now, India could be a linchpin in a fragile global order, a rival outmaneuvered by an ascendant China, or a nation teetering on the edge of climate-fueled chaos in South Asia.
These possibilities emerge from the Global Foresight 2025 report, a speculative exercise by the Atlantic Council’s foresight team—Peter Engelke, Greg Lindsay, and Paul Saffo—that imagines three worlds in 2035. Crafted from trends in geopolitics, economics, climate, and technology, and informed by over 350 strategists surveyed in 2024, the 32-page report (available at www.atlanticcouncil.org) offers no predictions, only provocations.
For India, the stakes are stark: its rivalry with China, its ties with the West and the Global South, and its unfulfilled quest for global influence all hang in the balance.
The Reluctant International Order: India’s Multipolar Maneuvering
In the first scenario, dubbed “The Reluctant International Order,” the world avoids collapse but settles into a grudging coexistence. The rules-based international order (RBIO)—the post-1945 system of norms and institutions like the United Nations—neither implodes nor thrives. India emerges as a vocal critic, alongside Brazil, of this order’s flaws. “These states… have accused the RBIO of being unrepresentative and its defenders of being hypocritical,” the report notes, echoing India’s real-time frustrations with a UN Security Council still dominated by 1945’s victors.
India’s rivalry with China simmers but doesn’t boil over. China, a revisionist power in a loose “axis of aggressors” with Russia, Iran, and North Korea, opts for coexistence with the U.S., avoiding a Taiwan grab. This restraint indirectly eases pressure on India’s eastern flank, where border tensions with China have flared since 2020. Yet, the report’s silence on the Line of Actual Control suggests their standoff persists unresolved, a cold peace shaped by mutual deterrence—India’s growing arsenal (e.g., Agni-V missiles) and China’s economic heft.
Relations with others offer mixed prospects. The U.S., still a “formidable nuclear deterrent,” bolsters India via the Quad, but the alliance’s minilateralism wanes as global cooperation splinters.
India’s ties with the Global South strengthen—its critique of RBIO hypocrisy resonates with Africa and Latin America—yet its bid for a permanent UNSC seat stalls. China’s tacit support for the UN’s sovereignty focus (“appeals to China’s interests,” the report says) hints at a veto wall, leaving India’s multilateral ambitions frustrated. New Delhi’s current policy—balancing strategic autonomy with Western partnerships—must evolve to leverage this fragmented order, lest it remain a middle power shouting into the void.
China Ascendant: India’s Regional Retreat
The second scenario, “China Ascendant,” paints a world where Beijing eclipses the U.S., remaking global institutions in its authoritarian image. India’s rivalry with China intensifies, framed as a “long-running contest for influence” in the Global South. China’s economic rebound—via an “innovation system with Chinese characteristics”—and its reformed lending (e.g., Belt and Road tweaks) win over Africa, Latin America, and South Asia, outpacing India’s slower diplomatic gains, like the $10 billion Africa pledge at the 2023 G20.
India’s strategic pivot is telling: it ditches the Quad, believing it “can achieve more through its own bilateral actions to check Chinese influence.” This mirrors today’s drift—India’s 2024 hesitance to fully align with U.S. Indo-Pacific goals amid trade ties with Russia. China’s military basing spree, including in South Asia (e.g., Sri Lanka’s Hambantota), encircles India, amplifying threats to its maritime choke points like the Malacca Strait. “China now has bases in Africa, South Asia, the Caribbean,” the report warns, a nod to India’s fears of encirclement.
Relations with the West fray as the U.S. turns inward, leaving allies like Japan and Australia hedging with China. India’s bilateral focus—e.g., defense pacts with France—gains traction, but its global clout wanes. The UNSC dream fades further as China recasts the UN, sidelining democratic norms India champions.
“Serious emphasis on human rights… has collapsed within multilateral institutions,” the report observes, a blow to India’s moral leverage. New Delhi must rethink its China containment—perhaps deepening ties with Japan, now eyeing nuclear arms—to avoid being a regional footnote.
Climate of Fear: India’s South Asian Tinderbox
In “Climate of Fear,” a hotter, unstable Earth drives conflict, and India faces a regional maelstrom. Climate migration sparks a crisis: “India, for example, has clamped down on its borders with Bangladesh and Myanmar, heavily fortifying them with more personnel, fencing, sophisticated electronic-surveillance systems, and autonomous enforcement technologies such as drones.” This hardline stance ignites a diplomatic firestorm. Pakistan, allied with Bangladesh and Myanmar, demands a reversal, pushing South Asia to “a knife’s edge.”
China looms indirectly. Its coal plants, a decarbonization drag (“concentrated in China,” the report notes), worsen climate pressures India absorbs—150 million global migrants by 2035, many regional. India’s border clampdown strains ties with China’s proxies (e.g., Pakistan), risking a proxy clash. Meanwhile, India’s renewables push—40% of energy by 2030—offers a bright spot, but its legacy coal reliance mirrors China’s, slowing global progress past the 1.5°C Paris target.
Relations with the West and Global South buckle under climate chaos. The U.S. and Europe, grappling with their own migrants, offer little aid, while India’s border walls alienate neighbors. The UN’s climate process, “moribund,” dashes hopes for coordinated relief or UNSC reform. India must bolster regional diplomacy—perhaps reviving SAARC—to manage this turbulence.
Dimensions and Dilemmas
Across all scenarios, India’s dimensions—geopolitical, economic, climatic—intertwine with China’s shadow. Economically, India lags in “China Ascendant,” its $5 trillion GDP goal by 2030 dwarfed by Beijing’s trade dominance (renminbi overtaking dollars). In “Reluctant Order,” India’s trade ties grow, but tariff wars hit its exports. “Climate of Fear” sees supply chains falter—China’s 2029 typhoon a warning for India’s coastal hubs like Mumbai.
Technologically, India’s AI ambitions (e.g., India AI Mission) thrive in “Reluctant Order,” aiding trade, but falter in “China Ascendant” against Beijing’s lead. In “Climate of Fear,” AI’s energy hunger strains India’s grid, despite green tech gains. Socially, India’s 1.4 billion face job scarcity (“Reluctant”), democratic erosion (“China Ascendant”), or migration strife (“Climate”).
India’s Path Forward
The report’s scenarios aren’t destiny, but they spotlight India’s tightrope. Against China, it must blend deterrence (military buildup) with diplomacy (Global South coalitions). Relations with the U.S. need recalibration—less Quad, more bilateral heft—while “Russia’s 2026 Ukraine loss” offers India leverage to diversify arms ties. Climate demands faster decarbonization and regional cooperation, not walls.
India’s UNSC bid, unspoken but ever-present, hinges on exploiting these futures—pushing reform in “Reluctant Order,” countering China’s sway in “Ascendant,” or rallying climate-hit nations in “Fear.” As Engelke and team write, “The point… is to find out what you don’t know and should know.” For India, that’s a call to act—before 2035 writes its fate.
This analysis draws on the 32-page “Global Foresight 2025” report by the Atlantic Council, available at www.atlanticcouncil.org.
